Best PromptsThree-Scenario Financial Projection
Build a 12-month base, downside, and upside projection from your real numbers: every assumption labeled, arithmetic shown, no fantasy growth.
Build a 12-month financial projection for my business in three scenarios. Current real numbers (last 3 months if possible): """ [PASTE: monthly revenue, units/customers, average price, monthly costs split into fixed and variable, cash on hand] """ How the business grows: [THE DRIVERS, e.g. "paid ads at $X/month bringing ~Y customers" / "2 sales reps closing ~Z deals/month"] What I'm deciding with this model: [THE DECISION, e.g. "whether I can afford a hire in Q4" / "how long runway lasts"] Build: 1. **Assumptions table first**: every number the model uses, each labeled [FROM YOUR DATA] or [ASSUMED], with one line on the reasoning for each assumption. Growth assumptions must connect to the stated drivers, not appear from nowhere: "revenue grows 10%/month" is banned unless a driver explains the mechanism. 2. **Three scenarios**: monthly table (revenue, costs, net, cumulative cash) for: - Base: current trajectory continues, drivers perform as they have been. - Downside: the most plausible bad case (name what goes wrong: churn up, channel degrades, a driver stalls), not a token 10% haircut. - Upside: drivers outperform for a stated reason, not a hockey stick. 3. **The arithmetic**: show the calculation for month 1 and any month where the logic changes, so I can verify and extend the model myself. 4. **What the model says about my decision**: answer the stated decision under each scenario, including the month where anything critical happens (cash-out date, break-even, hire affordability). 5. **Sensitivity**: the 2 assumptions that move the outcome most; for each, the value at which my decision flips. Rules: these are hypotheses, not predictions. Say so in the output and rank which assumption you're least confident in. Never smooth over missing data: if a needed number wasn't provided, mark it [NEEDED: what] and show how the model changes with/without it. Round honestly; false precision ($43,217.88 in month 11) implies confidence the model doesn't have.
How to use
The assumptions-table-first structure is the safeguard: financial hallucination happens in silently invented growth rates, so the prompt forces every number to be tagged and mechanically justified. Use the month-1 arithmetic to rebuild the model in a spreadsheet: the model's value is the structure and sensitivities, not the specific month-11 figure.
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